Push polls

The American Association for Public Opinion Research explains what a push poll is:

AAPOR defines a "push poll" as a form of negative campaigning that is disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are actually political telemarketing -- telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions.

Historically, the most famous example is probably this one from the 2000 Republican presidential primary in Georgia. George Bush’s campaign “polled” with this question:

"Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?"

McCain hadn’t but that didn’t matter -- the damage had been done.

Candidate Mooney's push poll

I would venture a guess that most West Virginians have, at one time or another, been on the receiving end of a telephone push poll. (I usually hang around to see who the beneficiary is.) Recently, one of the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, Alex Mooney, published the questions from his “poll” on his congressional website. Would the voter be more or less likely to vote for Jim Justice if they knew:

Notice how the questions follow the same structure as the Bush question: (1) each of them starts with an unproven assertion, and then (2) given the assertion, asks whether, knowing this, the receiver would be more or less likely to support Justice.

This is not a poll; it's an attempt at persuasion. In his column yesterday, Ogden’s political reporter, Steven Allen Adams, treats it as a real poll although he does cover each of the questions and explains Justice’s position. On some, Adams even questions the “polls” assertions. (It should also be noted that Adams began the column by noting that we, as readers, should “always remember to take internal polling released by campaigns with copious amounts of salt.”) A point well taken but then Adams justifies the column by pointing out that:

. . . it should be noted that in hindsight, Mooney’s internal polling during the Republican primary for the 2nd District in 2022 was pretty spot on, showing him ahead of former 1st District Congressman David McKinley.

That poll was not a push poll, however. Finally, Adams quotes Mooney's campaign advisor, Mark Harris:

“The survey shows that although Justice starts with a large name identification advantage, once voters are informed of Justice’s liberal record, Rep. Alex Mooney jumps out to a lead,” Harris wrote. “The reality is that this race will become the classic liberal vs. conservative primary.”

Jim Justice, "the classic liberal." Now that's some bizarre framing!