From time to time, Donald Trump, some of his administration, and several Republicans and libertarians have advocated that we soon end the shutdown, go back to work, and practice limited social distancing. Some of these proponents argue that we should adopt what Sweden has done, which, as opposed to its Scandinavian neighbors, does not follow the coronavirus lockdown model.

A good example of this argument might be Dennis Prager from Townhall who featured Sweden in his “Lockdowns May Not Be Necessary” column in this morning’s Intelligencer. Prager argues:

And then there is Sweden, the one industrialized Western democracy that did not shut down – engendering intense anger from scientists and other “experts” as well as left-wing media. Sweden, which still has its restaurants and businesses open is far below Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, the U.K., the Netherlands, Switzerland and Luxembourg – all of which have national lockdowns – in deaths per 1 million.

My first reaction was to question the comparisons. There are lots of variables in gauging the success or failure of various government efforts to stem the spread of the virus. Population density strikes me as an important one. (For example, it doesn’t surprise me that New York City, where your personal space is often inhabited by other humans, has a much higher death rate than West Virginia.) Another important one might also be where Sweden was in the coronavirus cycle. (Before, after, or at its peak death rate.) I could not tell when the article was written although it appeared to be recently – maybe the virus hasn’t peaked yet. The article thankfully listed a source, Worldometer, and so I checked it out.

Is Prager cherry-picking his data?

If you go to Worldometer, Prager’s list of countries with higher death rates is accurate. But what about the countries that are much more similar to Sweden like the Scandinavian countries of Norway and Finland? Today’s statistics read:

• Sweden 119 deaths per million
• Norway 27 deaths per million
• Finland 13 deaths per million (both Norway and Finland have fines for not social distancing)
• Iceland 23 deaths per million
• Denmark (denser but considered Scandanavian) 53 deaths per million
  

Currently in Sweden

I went looking for the most recent data and found some in today’s Manchester Guardian:

Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000

It begins:

Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours, but suggested it may be nearing the outbreak’s peak as scientists continue to question the government’s light-touch approach.

The Public Health Agency announced a death toll of 1,203 people from Covid-19 on Wednesday, a rate of 118 per million inhabitants, compared with 55 in Denmark and just 13 in Finland, both of which imposed strict early lockdowns to curb the virus’s spread.

Additionally, CNN reported yesterday that Swedish scientists were “pushing increased restrictions” to slow the spread of the virus.

By the way, Prager’s source, Worldometer currently lists the United States at 83 deaths per million compared to Sweden’s 119 per million. Do we really want to consider the Swedish model?